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ulations consist of ‘injections’, such as investm ent, which will have a m ultiplier im pact on incom e. M oreover, if we think of incom e as a ‘target’, the task is to find the exact size of the injection (‘instrum ent’) that will achieve the ‘target’ incom e level. This approxim ates the ‘target- instrum ent’ system devised by Tinbergen and is inherent in the Alpham etrics m odel. In constructing this scenario, we have set a num ber of ‘targets’: incom e growth for m ost regions, energy dem and, and

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ADDRESSING GLOBAL IMBALANCES: A DEVELOPMENT-ORIENTED POLICY AGENDA&lowast; Alex Izurieta&lowast;&lowast; and Terry M cKinley&lowast;&lowast;&lowast; ABSTRACT This working paper uses a revived ‘world trade and incom e m odel’ to exam ine three m arkedly different scenarios of the world econom y. It presents criticism s of the first scenario, the ‘Consensus Growth Forecast’, which is an optim istic scenario for future global growth utilized by U.S. policym akers and international financial institutions. This forecast assum es that the

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by m aking assum ptions about basic m acroeconom ic param eters and then obliging the results to be consistent with recent historical trends and the current structure of the world econom y. A brief description of the m odelling m ethodology is presented in Section 2 while the details are elaborated in Appendix A. Section 3 elaborates the three scenarios. The first scenario presents logically derived results for the U.S. econom y, the world econom y, and various regions and m ajor countries if the

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and a significant degree of international policy coordination, particularly am ong developing countries. SCENARIO ONE: THE ‘CONSENSUS GROWTH FORECAST’ According to the official view in the U.S., the econom y is expected to grow at 3.4 per cent during 2005-2009 and 3.2 per cent during 2010-2015. This projected rate is above the U.S. trend rate of growth during 1970-2005, i.e., 2.8 per cent (see Figure 1). Exam ining this projection with our world trade and incom e m odel, we conclude that under the

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needed to stem capital outflows. As a result, the U.S. would slide into recession. The onset and the pace of econom ic decline are difficult to predict. However, the direction and the orders of m agnitude appear clear. We now outline the likeliest scenario if no m ajor policy changes and no structural reform s of the world econom y are undertaken. Further below in the third scenario, we will present general recom m endations on how such a dire scenario could be avoided and how a m ore m utually beneficial

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regional and global levels that could better ‘order the current volum e of investm ent’ so as to avoid recessionary conditions and achieve sustainable growth? SCENARIO THREE: COORDINATED REFLATION AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE We now outline a third scenario that can help overcom e the current global m acroeconom ic im balances and substantially im prove the prospects for m ore rapid global growth. We call it a co-ordinated, policy-driven growth scenario because it does not rely principally on m arket forces, as is

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ulations consist of ‘injections’, such as investm ent, which will have a m ultiplier im pact on incom e. M oreover, if we think of incom e as a ‘target’, the task is to find the exact size of the injection (‘instrum ent’) that will achieve the ‘target’ incom e level. This approxim ates the ‘target- instrum ent’ system devised by Tinbergen and is inherent in the Alpham etrics m odel. In constructing this scenario, we have set a num ber of ‘targets’: incom e growth for m ost regions, energy dem and, and

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of m acroeconom ic and structural reform s advanced by our third scenario, countries would have to m ount a m ajor effort to achieve greater energy efficiency.

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ent in energy efficiency and 2) a m uch slower growth in dem and (i.e., an average of 1.8 per cent over ten years) as a result of substantial efficiency im provem ents triggered by conservation m easures assum ed in the Coordinated Growth Scenario. FIGURE 27 Energy Dem and (Average rate of grow th over 10 years) 1 2 3 4 5 6 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 Consensus Growth Co-ordinated Growth Under the Coordinated Growth Scenario, developing countries would benefit from price changes along two axes: 1

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Alex Izurieta and Terry M cKinley 33 4 CONCLU SION This paper has discussed three scenarios for the world econom y based on the application of a world trade and incom e m odel. The first scenario presented what we call the ‘Consensus Growth Forecast’. However, our estim ates suggest that this scenario would lead to U.S. current account deficits of a negative 10 per cent of GDP by 2015. This increasing drag on aggregate dem and would have to be com pensated by increases in spending by either the

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34 International Poverty Centre Working Paper nº 23 of policy change would be involved, nam ely, the prom otion of greater dom estic absorption and a resulting rise in dom estic standards of living. Rising dom estic absorption in high-incom e and m iddle-incom e countries that have run surpluses would substitute for the loss of dem and from the U.S. econom y, and would also help absorb growing exports from poorer countries. This scenario posits econom ic growth of 3.0 per cent for developed

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Library of Congress: Moldova 1990 Elections

Front's organizational weakness in many localities outside the capital, especially in comparison with the local strength of the CPM's rural party apparatus. Despite these difficulties, Popular Frontapproved candidates were on the ballot in 219 out of Moldova's 380 electoral districts by the Februa...

lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?frd/cstdy:@field(DOCID+md0052)

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The Fiscal Implications of Scaling up ODA to Deal with the HIV/AIDS Pandemic

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into the first category. N evertheless, the success of the program m e w ill have an im pact under the second category. There are also persuasive reasons for supposing that there m ay be an im portant im pact under the third objective, especially in countries w ith extrem ely high incidences of infection. H ow ever, the first objective provides the central justification for the increase of OD A. This analysis has a num ber of im portant im plications for the discussion of fiscal policy. First, the

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into the first category. N evertheless, the success of the program m e w ill have an im pact under the second category. There are also persuasive reasons for supposing that there m ay be an im portant im pact under the third objective, especially in countries w ith extrem ely high incidences of infection. H ow ever, the first objective provides the central justification for the increase of OD A. This analysis has a num ber of im portant im plications for the discussion of fiscal policy. First, the

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aid have found evidence of depreciation (see Prati et al. 2003; IM F, 2005a), as noted above--a result perfectly consistent w ith theoretical preconceptions. Other recent evaluations have also found a system atic positive effect of aid on grow th under alternative disaggregations (see Clem ens, Radelet and Bhavnam i, 2004, w ho disaggregate according to the purpose of the aid). Although the evidence is m uch m ore m uted, especially for sub-Saharan Africa (see IM F, 2005a for exam ple), a sim ilar

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increases in aid too m uch of a good thing”, W orking Paper N um ber 90, Center for G lobal D evelopm ent, W ashington D .C. Barder, O. (2006b). “A Policym aker’s G uide to D utch D isease”, W orking Paper N um ber 91, Center for G lobal D evelopm ent, W ashington D .C. Barro, R. (1990). “G overnm ent Spending in a sim ple m odel of endogenous grow th”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, pp. S103-S125. Bell, C., S. D evarajan and H . G ersbach (2003). “The Long-run Econom ic Costs of AID S: Theory and

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Incom e Countries and Policy Im plications”, IM F, W ashington D .C. International M onetary Fund, (2005b). “M onetary and Fiscal Policy D esign Issues in Low - Incom e Countries”, IM F, W ashington D .C. Killick, T. (2004). “W hat D rives Change in G hana? A Political-Econom y View of Econom ic Prospects”, Overseas D evelopm ent Institute, London. Kenny, C. (2006). “W hat is Effective A id? H ow W ould D onors Allocate It?” W orld Bank Policy Research W orking Paper N um ber 4005, W orld Bank, W

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Developing a Global Model for Trade, Finance and Income Distribution

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illan. Board of G overnors of the Federal Reserve System . 2006. Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States. Second Q uarter 2006. Septem ber. Bureau of Econom ic Analysis. 2006. ‘How D oes “D ark M atter” Relate to BEA’s International Econom ic Accounts? ’ BEA’s FAQ s: http://faq.bea.gov/cgi-bin/bea.cfg/ Calvo, G . and C. Reinhart. 2000. ‘Fear of Floating’. NBER W orking Paper 7993. National Bureau of Econom ic Research. Case, K. E., J. M . Q uigley and R. J. Shiller. 2005. ‘Com paring W ealth

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illan. Board of G overnors of the Federal Reserve System . 2006. Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States. Second Q uarter 2006. Septem ber. Bureau of Econom ic Analysis. 2006. ‘How D oes “D ark M atter” Relate to BEA’s International Econom ic Accounts? ’ BEA’s FAQ s: http://faq.bea.gov/cgi-bin/bea.cfg/ Calvo, G . and C. Reinhart. 2000. ‘Fear of Floating’. NBER W orking Paper 7993. National Bureau of Econom ic Research. Case, K. E., J. M . Q uigley and R. J. Shiller. 2005. ‘Com paring W ealth

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ent under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates.’ The Q uarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 74, No. 2. M ay, pp. 227-257. M undell, R. 1961. ‘A Theory of O ptim um Currency Areas’. American Economic Review. Vol. 51. No. 4. Septem ber, pp. 657-665. O cam po J. A. and L. Taylor. 1998. ‘Trade Liberalisation in D eveloping Econom ies: M odest Benefits but Problem s w ith Productivity G row th, M acro Prices, and Incom e D istribution’. The Economic Journal, Vol. 108, No. 450. Septem ber, pp. 1523-1546. O

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No.4, D ecem ber, pp.734-761. Prebisch, R. 1950 (re-printed 1986). ‘El D esarrollo Económ ico de la Am erica Latina y Algunos de sus Principales Problem as’. D esarrollo Economico. Vol. 26, No. 103 O ctober. pp. 479-502. Shiller, R. 2000. Irrational Exuberance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Singer, H. W . 1950. “The D istribution of G ains betw een Investing and Borrow ing Countries”. Am erican Econom ic Review , Vol. 40, no. 2. Taylor, L. (ed.) 2001. External Liberalization, Economic

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Career/Technical Education Framework (CA Dept. of Education)

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cuff size for the patient (HSMT E5.1; Technology 4.5). 5. Identify appropriate scale to measure blood pressure (Technology 4.5). 6. Place stethoscope properly over brachial artery and inflate cuff to 170 mm (HSMT E5.1). 7. Deflate cuff slowly (2–3 mm/sec) while listening for first audible beat. Note that num- ber. Continue slow deflation until last beat disappears. Note that number (HSMT E5.1; Technology 4.5). 8. Record blood pressure on chart and graph in patient’s record and report anything outside

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content standards detail de- scriptions of performance targets for specific career stages, goals, or grades. Because California does not provide benchmarks for academic or CTE standards, they must be developed by teachers, working cooperatively at the district or school-site level. 4. Norm-referenced tests. In this type of testing, students are compared with other students. The most-proficient students receive the highest scores, and the less-proficient students—even if they have acquired all the relevant

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assessment in a one-page word-processed narrative (Communications 2.1 Reading Comprehension [grades nine and ten] 2.1; Technical Knowledge and Skills 10.1). Performance task rubric: Your grade will be based on the following rubric. Individual teachers should determine how to weight the standards and assign points for each level. Standards Advanced Proficient Basic Unacceptable ANR E3.1: Under- stand the systems used to classify soils. Student can cite four major characteristics and one use for each of

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Engineering and Heavy Construction | 203 B U IL D IN G T R A D ES A N D C O N ST R U C T IO N Performance task rubric: Your grade will be based on the following rubric: Standards Advanced Proficient Basic Unacceptable BTC B4.2: Un- derstand how to estimate the cost of supplies and materi- als for an engineering and heavy construc- tion project. (50 points) Estimate in- cludes all of the required material and also includes options and costs for these options. (50 points) Estimate includes

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Family and Human Services | 231 ED U C A T IO N , C H IL D D EV EL O PM EN T, A N D F A M IL Y S ER V IC ES Standards: This sample performance task targets the following Education, Child Devel- opment, and Family Services industry sector foundation and Family and Human Services pathway standards: Standard number Standards Foundation: Communications 2.4 Listening and Speaking Strategies and Applications (grades nine and ten) 2.6 Deliver descriptive presentations: a. Establish clearly the

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232 | Family and Human Services ED U C A T IO N , C H IL D D EV EL O PM EN T, A N D F A M IL Y S ER V IC ES Performance task rubric: Your grade will be based on the following rubric. Individual teachers should determine how to weight the standards and assign points for each level. Standards Advanced Proficient Basic Unacceptable ECDFS D8.2: Understand ef- fective ways to communicate and interact with culturally diverse individuals and families, such as using mediation, conflict resolution

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various examples and scenarios. (30 points) During debate and classwide discussion, student displays an adequate under- standing of integrity and ethical behavior in the workplace and applies this knowledge to one or two well-chosen ex- amples or scenarios. (20 points) During debate and classwide discussion, student displays a basic understanding of integrity and ethical behavior in the workplace and cites at least one example or hypo- thetical scenario. (15 points) During debate and

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Diagnostic Services | 307 H EA LT H S C IE N C E A N D M ED IC A L T EC H N O LO G Y Standards: This sample performance task targets the following Health Science and Medical Technology industry sector foundation and Diagnostic Services pathway standards: Standard number Standards Foundation: Academics 1.2 Focus on Life Sciences (grade seven) 5.b Students know organ systems function because of the contribu- tions of individual organs, tissues, and cells. The failure of any part can affect the

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cuff size for the patient (HSMT E5.1; Technology 4.5). 5. Identify appropriate scale to measure blood pressure (Technology 4.5). 6. Place stethoscope properly over brachial artery and inflate cuff to 170 mm (HSMT E5.1). 7. Deflate cuff slowly (2–3 mm/sec) while listening for first audible beat. Note that num- ber. Continue slow deflation until last beat disappears. Note that number (HSMT E5.1; Technology 4.5). 8. Record blood pressure on chart and graph in patient’s record and report anything outside

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334 | Food Service and Hospitality H O SP IT A LI T Y, T O U R IS M , A N D R EC R EA T IO N Picnic Scenario You are attending a Pacific Symphony Under the Stars Concert at which a local company is catering the lunch (see the following menu). On the next day five members of your party suffer cramps, nausea, headaches, diarrhea, and vomiting. Consult the preceding assignment to determine what microorganisms, ingredients, methods of preparation, handling, trans- portation, or storage may have caused

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Food Service and Hospitality | 335 H O SP IT A LI T Y, T O U R IS M , A N D R EC R EA T IO N Standards Advanced Proficient Basic Unacceptable HTR B3.5: Know the essential principles of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, including the use of flow- charts. The answers correctly list all HACCP prin- ciples and include a thorough discus- sion of how each principle should have been applied to prevent an outbreak of food- borne illness in this scenario. An accurate flow- chart is

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scenario. Mission state- ment and written report indicate clear understanding of the importance of guest service to the success of the industry. Written report gives four examples. Mission statement does not ad- equately address guest services. Written report does not mention the importance of guest service or does not give at least four examples. HTR C3.2: Understand the concept of exceptional guest service. In all elements the student shows a clear under- standing of the difference

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Hospitality, Tourism, and Recreation | 341 H O SP IT A LI T Y, T O U R IS M , A N D R EC R EA T IO N Standards Advanced Proficient Basic Unacceptable HTR C3.3: Anticipate the needs, desires, and interests of guests in order to exceed their expectations. Questions asked by scenario employee were insightful and al- lowed employee to gather information needed to exceed guest’s expecta- tions. Interactions with guests showed an awareness of the probable specific needs and interests of

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406 | Professional Sales and Marketing M A R K ET IN G , SA LE S, A N D S ER V IC E Standards: This sample performance task targets the following Marketing, Sales, and Service sector foundation and Professional Sales and Marketing pathway standards: Standard number Standards Foundation: Communications 2.2 Writing Strategies and Applications (grades eleven and twelve) 1.6 Develop presentations by using clear research questions and creative and critical research strategies (e.g., field studies

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426 | Protective Services PU B LI C S ER V IC ES Performance task rubric: Your grade will be based on the following rubric: Standards Advanced Proficient Basic Unacceptable PS C3.1: Become certified in first aid and cardiopulmonary resus- citation (CPR) in order to apply those skills as needed in emergencies. (70 points) Student passes written and practical exams with grades of 95 percent or better. CPR certification is received. (70 points) Student passes written and practical exams. CPR

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How costly is it to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty between 199...

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Nanak Kakwani and Hyun H. Son 11 Table 3 presents the required average investm ent as a percentage of G D P. The required investm ents as percentage of G D P differ across the countries depending on the pattern of growth. W ith the pro-poor growth scenario, the average required investm ent is estim ated to be 21.42 percent of G D P, which is considerably lower than the rate of 24.12 percent resulted from the distribution-neutral scenario. D etailed estim ates of required investm ent ratio from

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shows only the growth elasticities of poverty reduction averaged over 2005-2015. As would be expected, the m agnitude of the elasticity is greatest under the pro-poor growth scenario (Figure 1). This indicates that the im pact of growth on poverty reduction is greatest if a 1 percent uniform growth in per capita consum ption expenditure accom panies a reduction in the G ini index of 0.5 percent. W ith the sam e 1 percent growth in the per capita consum ption expenditure, the growth pattern of distribution

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that the param eter of crowding-out of private investm ent by public investm ent is zero. A num ber of studies such as W eeks and Roy (2004) suggest that there is no em pirical evidence of the crowding-out. There are som e studies that support the crowding-in effect in countries such as China and Vietnam . Then a question arises as to what value should be assum ed for the ratio of the crowding-out effect. In fact, assum ing a hypothetical value for the param eter will be too ad hoc. Yet, under the presum

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Nanak Kakwani and Hyun H. Son 11 Table 3 presents the required average investm ent as a percentage of G D P. The required investm ents as percentage of G D P differ across the countries depending on the pattern of growth. W ith the pro-poor growth scenario, the average required investm ent is estim ated to be 21.42 percent of G D P, which is considerably lower than the rate of 24.12 percent resulted from the distribution-neutral scenario. D etailed estim ates of required investm ent ratio from

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out is unlikely to occur in practice, under this extrem e scenario public investm ent offsets private investm ent by 100 percent. In this case, φ takes a value of 1. Then the potential growth rate with public investm ent can be defined as: ( )grgo aaigg −−=* (a-11) This derivation indicates that there will be always loss of growth if crowding out is total and ar > ag. However, the crowding-out can lead to a positive im pact on growth if pubic capital is m ore productive than private capital, i.e. ar

www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper19.pdf#page=13

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Strengthening the Employment Impact of an MDG-Based Development Strategy for Yemen

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the M acroeconom ics of Poverty Reduction, October. W orld Bank (2003). “Unlocking the Em ploym ent Potential in the M iddle East and North Africa: Tow ards a New Social Contract.” Draft, Septem ber, W ashington D.C. W orld Bank (2004). W orld D evelopment Indicators. W ashington D.C.: W orld Bank. NO TE 1. There is under-reporting of secondary em ploym ent in the 1999 Labour Force Survey. W ere the hours w orked in jobs other than the prim ary one included, these averages w ould likely be

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from South Asia, is another part. Nevertheless, the num ber of Yem enis w orking abroad rem ains high. One estim ate is that they represent about one quarter of the total Yem eni labour force (w orking both at hom e and abroad). In 1998, for exam ple, they w ere estim ated to num ber over one m illion w orkers. Their rem ittances, although falling since the early 1990s, still add up to alm ost one fifth of GDP. Thus, their earnings are essential to the livelihoods of m any Yem eni households—as w ell as

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the M acroeconom ics of Poverty Reduction, October. W orld Bank (2003). “Unlocking the Em ploym ent Potential in the M iddle East and North Africa: Tow ards a New Social Contract.” Draft, Septem ber, W ashington D.C. W orld Bank (2004). W orld D evelopment Indicators. W ashington D.C.: W orld Bank. NO TE 1. There is under-reporting of secondary em ploym ent in the 1999 Labour Force Survey. W ere the hours w orked in jobs other than the prim ary one included, these averages w ould likely be

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For full Report: South Africa

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An Employment-Targeted Economic Program for South Africa72 Table 4.5 Employment Effects of Combining Accelerated Economic Growth with Increased Labor Intensity A) ACTUAL LEVELS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN 2004 Average GDP growth rate 1994 – 2004 3.1% Total employment 2004 11.6 million Employment/output ratio 2003 8.6 (jobs/R1 million in output) Source: See Appendix 3. B) EMPLOYMENT IN 2014 UNDER ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS Employment Employment creation, in 2014 2005 – 2014 Scenario 1: Steady state from current

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percent. The rand would also depreciate over this five year period Table S.1 Total Employment and Unemployment Rate in 2014 under Alternative Scenarios for Economic Growth and Labor Intensity Additional assumptions: 1. Labor force growth is 1.9 percent per year 2. Informal employment/total employment = 27 percent (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Formal Informal Total Total Unemploy- Labor employ- employ- employ- unemploy- ment rate force ment ment ment ment (= columns 5/1) Scenario 1: 19.5 9.8 3.2 13.0 6.5 33.3% Steady

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ratio within each industry of the economy declines at an average rate of 1 percent per year. Under this scenario, as we see, total employment in South Africa in 2014 will be 9.8 million people, and total job creation over the decade will have been roughly 900,000 jobs. The second set of assumptions is that the average growth rate of the economy accelerates to 4.5 percent, as a result of macroeconomic policy interventions that succeed in promoting growth. However, under this second scenario, there Table 4.4

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71A Policy Framework on Growth, Labor Intensity and Poverty Reduction are still no policy interventions to reverse the trend of declining labor intensity. We therefore again assume that the employment/output ratio by industry con- tinues to fall at an average annual rate of one percent. Under this scenario, we see that total employment in South Africa will be 10.8 million. The expansion of employment over the 2005 – 14 decade will be 1.9 million jobs. In the third set of assumptions, we allow both for

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An Employment-Targeted Economic Program for South Africa72 Table 4.5 Employment Effects of Combining Accelerated Economic Growth with Increased Labor Intensity A) ACTUAL LEVELS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN 2004 Average GDP growth rate 1994 – 2004 3.1% Total employment 2004 11.6 million Employment/output ratio 2003 8.6 (jobs/R1 million in output) Source: See Appendix 3. B) EMPLOYMENT IN 2014 UNDER ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS Employment Employment creation, in 2014 2005 – 2014 Scenario 1: Steady state from current

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economic growth and labor intensity. In Table 4.6, we present projections for overall employment and unemploy- ment in 2014 under two of the scenarios we have considered in Table 4.5 above. The first is Scenario 1, which is the steady-state scenario of 3 percent average growth and a 1 percent average decline in labor intensity. We then return to Scenario 3, in which we assume a growth rate of 4.5 percent for non-subsi- dized activities and an 8 percent growth stimulus for the subsidized activi- ties—in this

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75A Policy Framework on Growth, Labor Intensity and Poverty Reduction 3. Even if economic growth does accelerate to something like 4.5 percent in non-subsidized areas and 8 percent in subsidized activities, it will still be the case that by 2014 the unemployment rate will be around 15 percent— i.e. even under our favorable Scenario 3, the unemployment rate will not quite fall to half of its current rate of roughly 26 percent as of 2014. The overall point then is this: only through an aggressive, though

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Cash Transfer Programmes in Brazil: Impacts on Inequality and Poverty

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Fabio Veras Soares, Sergei Soares, M arcelo M edeiros and Rafael G uerreiro O sório 7 households (3.8 m illion), follow ed by Cooking G as stipend (3.5 m illion) and Bolsa Família (2.1 m illion). These values do not reflect the program m es’ adm inistrative data records. According to these data, in Septem ber 2004, the Bolsa Família had already reached around 5 m illion fam ilies and the Bolsa Escola around 3.3 m illion (w ithout overlapping). The discrepancies are large: the PNAD estim ates a num

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The benefit for each child is R$15 and a fam ily can accum ulate it for up to a m axim um of three children. Fam ilies in extrem e poverty (up to R$ 50) can also accum ulate this benefit w ith the basic benefit of R$ 50. Therefore, the m axim um benefit that a fam ily can achieve under this program m e is R$95.3 Conditionalities of the program m e involve a 85% attendance at school for school age children, updated im m unization cards for children betw een 0-6 years old, and regular visits to health

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Fabio Veras Soares, Sergei Soares, M arcelo M edeiros and Rafael G uerreiro O sório 7 households (3.8 m illion), follow ed by Cooking G as stipend (3.5 m illion) and Bolsa Família (2.1 m illion). These values do not reflect the program m es’ adm inistrative data records. According to these data, in Septem ber 2004, the Bolsa Família had already reached around 5 m illion fam ilies and the Bolsa Escola around 3.3 m illion (w ithout overlapping). The discrepancies are large: the PNAD estim ates a num

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can reproduce the distribution of the beneficiaries and their characteristics w ell in relative term s. To investigate this hypothesis, w e contrasted the regional distribution of the adm inistrative data for the Bolsa Família, Bolsa Escola, Food Stipend, Food Card, and Cooking G as Stipend referring to the num ber of beneficiary fam ilies w ith the PNAD data distribution for the sam e program m es. Table 2 reveals that the PNAD reproduces the regional distribution of the beneficiaries w ith quite good

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Fabio Veras Soares, Sergei Soares, M arcelo M edeiros and Rafael G uerreiro O sório 9 TABLE 3 Num ber of residents 65 years of age or older in households w here BPC beneficiaries live # of redidents (65 years or older) Frequency % 0 437,701 57.42 1 237,12 31.11 2 83,544 10.96 3 3,053 0.40 4 648 0.09 5 210 0.03 Total 762,276 100 Source: 2004 PNAD M icrodata (IBG E). In term s of regional distribution, the PNAD data replicate the adm inistrative data w ith good precision w hen one looks at

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disabled fam ily m em ber; and the siblings w ho are under 21 years of age or w ho are perm anently disabled. By these criteria, some m em bers of the fam ily w ho are 21 or older do not enter into the com putation of the fam ily incom e per capita, not even as providers of incom e in the num erator, nor in the denom inator for the calculation of the per capita fam ily incom e. Consequently, even though the fam ily incom e per capita for BPC eligibility is one quarter of a m inim um w age, w hich

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significant other; the parents; the siblings under 21 years of age, or the perm anently disabled and their peers, including the step-children and m inor children w ho are students; and the siblings under 21 years of age, or the perm anently disabled (M DS, 2006). 14. Rem em ber that both BF (0.52% ) and BPC (0.3% ) are sm all shares of total incom e. Thus, their overall im pact on poverty headcount have got to be sm all based on their w eight. Despite being very w ell targeted, their effect on poverty and

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Chinese Poverty: Assessing the Impact of Alternative Assumptions

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areas in the first half of the 1980s. A series of studies present poverty headcounts for China in the context of broader estim ates for the world. For exam ple, Berry and Serieux (2004) estim ate poverty headcount ratios for China and the world for 1980, 1990 and 2000. The paper concludes that the num ber of people living under $500 per year at 1985 international dollars decreased in China by m ore than 75 percent. At the sam e tim e, the num ber of people living under $1500 per year at 1985

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which are relatively close to their survey counterparts, and we proceed to com pute poverty headcount ratios with POVCAL in this paper. The rem ainder of the W orking Paper is structured as follows. Section II contains a review of the literature on incom e and consum ption poverty in China. Section III presents the data used in the paper. Section IV discusses the alternative assum ptions under consideration, introduces alternative poverty lines and discusses different estim ates of per capita private

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areas in the first half of the 1980s. A series of studies present poverty headcounts for China in the context of broader estim ates for the world. For exam ple, Berry and Serieux (2004) estim ate poverty headcount ratios for China and the world for 1980, 1990 and 2000. The paper concludes that the num ber of people living under $500 per year at 1985 international dollars decreased in China by m ore than 75 percent. At the sam e tim e, the num ber of people living under $1500 per year at 1985

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