iSEEK - Education

36 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 26 Sim ilarly, we can calculate the contribution of each incom e com ponent to the growth rate of total per capita incom e: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )4321 CCCC ttttt γγγγγ +++= (A.3) Subtracting (A.3) from (A.2) gives the contribution of each incom e com ponent to the inequality of total per capita incom e. ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )4*3*2*1** CgCgCgCgg ttttt +++= (A.4)

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Grow th rates by non-labour com ponents Non-labour income Period Labour income Social security Other non-labour Non-social income Total income Actual growth 1995-2004 -1.49 3.25 5.77 -2.43 -0.63 1995-2001 -1.30 4.69 0.73 -1.23 -0.30 2001-2004 -2.05 0.86 13.26 -3.69 -1.35 Pro-poor growth 1995-2004 -0.73 3.12 29.94 1.43 0.73 1995-2001 -0.97 2.56 25.50 4.41 0.10 2001-2004 0.97 3.90 35.21 -1.97 3.07 Inequality 1995-2004 0.76 -0.13 24.17 3.86 1.36 1995-2001 0.32 -2.13 24.77 5.64 0.40 2001-2004

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28 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 26 contribution is particularly high in the latter period 2001-04. W hile non-social incom e appears to play a sm aller role in reducing inequality, the net im pact of social security has been quite im portant. D uring the first period (1995-2001), the net effect of social security resulted in an increase in inequality. Its net contribution on inequality was greater than the net contributions by the other two com ponents. Nevertheless, the sum of the

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Nanak Kakwani, M arcelo Neri and H yun H . Son 33 APPEND IX SH APELY D ECOM POSITION TO EXPLAIN CONTRIBU TIONS OF INCOM E COM PONENTS FOR PRO-POOR GROWTH Suppose there are four incom e com ponents which include: X1t: Per capita labour incom e at year t X2t: Per capita social security incom e at year t X3t: Per capita cash transfers at year t X4t: Per capita non-social incom e at year t Total per capita incom e at year t is thus the sum of the four individual incom e com ponents

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36 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 26 Sim ilarly, we can calculate the contribution of each incom e com ponent to the growth rate of total per capita incom e: ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )4321 CCCC ttttt γγγγγ +++= (A.3) Subtracting (A.3) from (A.2) gives the contribution of each incom e com ponent to the inequality of total per capita incom e. ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )4*3*2*1** CgCgCgCgg ttttt +++= (A.4)

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Assessing the pro-poorness of government fiscal policy in Thailand

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Hyun H. Son 5 D ifferentiating (1) and using (8) gives the elasticity of θ w ith respect to iµ as ( ) ( ) � == z ii i i dxxfxg x P 0 1 ∂ ∂ θθ µ ∂µ ∂θηθ (9) For the Foster, G reer and Thorbecke (1984) class of poverty m easures, the ith incom e com ponent elasticity is derived from (8) as � − � � � � � � − −= z ii dxxfxg z xz z0 1 )()(1 α α α θ αη (10) for α ≠ 0 , w hich can easily be com puted given data on incom e com ponents and the net incom e x. The m ean incom e com ponent

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4 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 15 w hich is the percentage of poor w ho w ill cross the poverty line as a result of 1 percent of grow th in the m ean incom e of the society. Substituting α)(),( z xz xzP −= into (4) gives the elasticity of θα w ith respect to µ as ( ) α αα α α α θ θθα θ µ ∂µ ∂θη −−== −1 (5) for α ≠ 0 , w hich w ill alw ays be negative because θα is a m onotonically decreasing function of α. 2.3 G ROW TH ELASTICITY OF INCOM E COM PONENTS The total (or net) incom e

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Hyun H. Son 5 D ifferentiating (1) and using (8) gives the elasticity of θ w ith respect to iµ as ( ) ( ) � == z ii i i dxxfxg x P 0 1 ∂ ∂ θθ µ ∂µ ∂θηθ (9) For the Foster, G reer and Thorbecke (1984) class of poverty m easures, the ith incom e com ponent elasticity is derived from (8) as � − � � � � � � − −= z ii dxxfxg z xz z0 1 )()(1 α α α θ αη (10) for α ≠ 0 , w hich can easily be com puted given data on incom e com ponents and the net incom e x. The m ean incom e com ponent

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increase in iµ redistributes incom e in favor of the rich or the poor individuals. In this case, w e m ust com pute the redistribution effect of an incom e com ponent on poverty. This is accom plished by decom posing the poverty elasticity iθη into tw o com ponents: � � � � � � � � −+= θθθθ ηµ µηη µ µη iiii (12) The first term on the right-hand side is the incom e effect, and the second term is the redistribution effect. It is the redistribution effect that tells us w hether an increase in

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Hyun H. Son 7 To derive the elasticity, let us w rite the dem and equations of k com m odities as q = q (x, p) w here p and q are the k × 1 vectors of prices and quantities of k com m odities, and x is the disposable incom e. It is reasonable to assum e that all individuals face the sam e price vector, w hich m eans that the prices are fixed across individuals. Thus, w e w rite the dem and equation as q = q(x), w hich are the quantities consum ed by an individual w ith disposable incom e x.1 U

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8 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 15 w here µ is the m ean incom e of the disposable incom e and p qi i is the m ean expenditure of the ith com m odity. The first term in (17) is the incom e effect of the price increase, w hich is alw ays positive because θη , given in (4), is negative. The second term is the redistribution or inequality effect of price change. It is the redistribution effect that tells us w hether an increase in price pi hurts the poor proportionally m ore than

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Hyun H. Son 11 4 D ATA ANALYSIS 4.1 D ATA SOURCE The data source com es from the Socio-Econom ic Surveys (SES) conducted in 1998. The SES data are unit record household surveys conducted every tw o years by the National Statistics Office in Thailand. The survey is nationw ide and covers all private, non-institutional households residing perm anently in m unicipal, sanitary districts, and villages. How ever, it excludes part of the population living in transient hotels or room ing houses

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12 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 15 4.2 ANALYSIS OF EM PIRICAL RESULTS Table 3 presents the values of poverty elasticity and the pro-poor index for different incom e com ponents. Public policies can be assessed for different m easures of poverty. The head-count ratio is a crude m easure of poverty because it com pletely ignores the gap in incom es from the poverty line and the distribution of incom e am ong the poor. The severity of the poverty index has all the desirable

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Hyun H. Son 13 FIG U RE 1 Pro-Poor index for incom e com ponents, poverty gap ratio 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 Wa ge & sa lar y En tre pre ne ur ial inc om e Fa rm inc om e Re nt fro m bo ar de rs La nd re nt fro m far m ing Ot her re nt fro m no n- far m ing Int er es t & div ide nd s Re m itta nc es Pe ns ion s & an nu itie s Te rm ina l p ay & ot her s Fo od as pa rt o f p ay Re nt re ce ive d a s p ay Ot her go od s a s p ay Ho m e pro

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NOTES 1. Note that w riting the dem and equations in the form q=q(x) does not im ply that all ow n-price and cross-price elasticities of dem and are zero. It only im plies that prices do not vary across individuals. 2. CV= [e(u,p*)-e(u,p)] is the com pensation variation, the com pensation that should be given to an individual to m aintain his or her utility level the sam e as before the price change. 3. The poverty threshold is set using the calorie requirem ents of individuals that differ by age

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Global Estimates of Pro-Poor Growth

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ere com piled by the W orld Bank. The data com e from prim ary sources and are available at http://w w w .w orldbank.org/research/povm onitor. 3. W e have used the W orld Bank’s country classification. 4. W e w ere able to get the figures for consum er price indicies for all spells and countries except 4 spells and 2 countries. 5. W e have com piled the data for the share of agriculture in GDP for 227 spells.

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ere com piled by the W orld Bank. The data com e from prim ary sources and are available at http://w w w .w orldbank.org/research/povm onitor. 3. W e have used the W orld Bank’s country classification. 4. W e w ere able to get the figures for consum er price indicies for all spells and countries except 4 spells and 2 countries. 5. W e have com piled the data for the share of agriculture in GDP for 227 spells.

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Measuring the Impact of Price Changes on Poverty

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6 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 33 ( ) ( ) ( ) � = � � � � � � � � − = − n i i i i * i * p pp 1 θηθ θθ p pp (15) w here iθη is the elasticity of θ w ith res...

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6 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 33 ( ) ( ) ( ) � = � � � � � � � � − = − n i i i i * i * p pp 1 θηθ θθ p pp (15) w here iθη is the elasticity of θ w ith respect to the price of the ith com m odity as defined in (11). The term on the right hand side of (15) m easures the im pact of the change in prices on poverty. How can w e m easure w hether changes in prices are pro-poor or anti-poor? To answ er this question

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6 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 33 ( ) ( ) ( ) � = � � � � � � � � − = − n i i i i * i * p pp 1 θηθ θθ p pp (15) w here iθη is the elasticity of θ w ith respect to the price of the ith com m odity as defined in (11). The term on the right hand side of (15) m easures the im pact of the change in prices on poverty. How can w e m easure w hether changes in prices are pro-poor or anti-poor? To answ er this question

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10 International Poverty Centre W orking Paper nº 33 The percentage change in poverty due to price changes can be decom posed into tw o com ponents, incom e and distribution effects. The incom e effect m easures the change in poverty w hen all prices increase uniform ly, w hereas the distribution effect captures the change in poverty because of changes in relative prices. The distribution effect reveals how changes in relative prices have affected the poor relative to the non-poor. It can be seen

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Poverty, Old-Age and Social Pensions in Kenya

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reduction com pared to a counter- factual situation when everyone receives exactly the sam e benefit from the service. Suppose that the average or m ean benefit generated from the program is denoted by b . The percentage change in aggregate poverty when the b am ount is given to everyone is given by � ∂ ∂ = z dxxf x Pbd 0 )( θθ θ W e define the pro-poor policy index as the ratio of actual proportional poverty reduction from the program to the proportional poverty reduction that would have been

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reduction com pared to a counter- factual situation when everyone receives exactly the sam e benefit from the service. Suppose that the average or m ean benefit generated from the program is denoted by b . The percentage change in aggregate poverty when the b am ount is given to everyone is given by � ∂ ∂ = z dxxf x Pbd 0 )( θθ θ W e define the pro-poor policy index as the ratio of actual proportional poverty reduction from the program to the proportional poverty reduction that would have been

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Poverty, Growth and Income Distribution in Lebanon

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6 Country Study nº 13 H ow ever, w hen considering overall poverty, the P1 index rises to 8.1 per cent, im plying that m any of the poor are clustered far below the upper poverty line. Consum ption is also relatively unequal am ong the entire poor population since the P2 index is 3.3 percent. This level is relatively high in com parison to that in other A rab countries. FIGURE 2 Distribution of Population betw een Poor and Non-Poor Categories, 2004-5 Source: Authors’ estim ates based on CAS

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6 Country Study nº 13 H ow ever, w hen considering overall poverty, the P1 index rises to 8.1 per cent, im plying that m any of the poor are clustered far below the upper poverty line. Consum ption is also relatively unequal am ong the entire poor population since the P2 index is 3.3 percent. This level is relatively high in com parison to that in other A rab countries. FIGURE 2 Distribution of Population betw een Poor and Non-Poor Categories, 2004-5 Source: Authors’ estim ates based on CAS

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e of the rich and can bypass—and perhaps even tax—som e of the poor who live in the better-off areas (Datt and Ravallion 1993; Ravallion 1995). Narrow geographical targeting at the level of the village or the urban com m unity could reduce the leakage of benefits to the non-poor in regions where, because of com m on agro- clim atic or socioeconom ic conditions, the standard of living in the m ajority of the households in m ost villages and urban com m unities is sim ilar. The households in these

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NOTES 1. Taking into account household size, age and gender com position, consum ption estim ates here include food and non- food consum ption, im puted rents, im puted value of hom e-grown food and in-kind transfers received by households. However, due to data lim itations, the flow of services from consum er durables is not taken into account, with the one exception of services provided by m eans of transportation (such as cars and trucks). Actual consum ption does not include gifts to other

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Managing the Exchange Rate Consequences of an MDG-Related Scale-up in HIV/AIDS Financing

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relatively short periods of tim e com e with several dangers. AID DEPENDENCY Large aid flows that persist over extended periods can induce responses that are inim ical to econom ic growth and welfare over the long run. One of those potential negative responses is a reduced dom estic savings rate as dom estic econom ic agents choose to consum e the m ost part of current incom e, with the expectation that foreign savings, in the form of developm ent assistance, will provide the necessary additional resources

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relatively short periods of tim e com e with several dangers. AID DEPENDENCY Large aid flows that persist over extended periods can induce responses that are inim ical to econom ic growth and welfare over the long run. One of those potential negative responses is a reduced dom estic savings rate as dom estic econom ic agents choose to consum e the m ost part of current incom e, with the expectation that foreign savings, in the form of developm ent assistance, will provide the necessary additional resources

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International Poverty Centre 17 In the view of the IMF (2005 a, c), the first effect is likely to com prom ise current investm ent and growth and the second and third effects m ay com prom ise long-term growth as well as overall m acroeconom ic stability. For these reasons, PRGF program conditionalities encourage countries to m aintain sm all fiscal deficits or surpluses. U nfortunately, when developm ent assistance com es in the form of budget support (particularly grant support), large

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New Global Poverty Counts

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and, which is m easured by a utility level denoted by u*. Anyone whose actual enjoym ent of utility is less than u* is identified as poor. If u* is fixed for all countries, then such estim ated poverty counts will obviously be internationally com parable. W e m ay define a utility function as: � � � � � � = n , r uu n f qq (1) where fq and nq are the quantity vectors of food and non-food item s of consum ption, respectively

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and, which is m easured by a utility level denoted by u*. Anyone whose actual enjoym ent of utility is less than u* is identified as poor. If u* is fixed for all countries, then such estim ated poverty counts will obviously be internationally com parable. W e m ay define a utility function as: � � � � � � = n , r uu n f qq (1) where fq and nq are the quantity vectors of food and non-food item s of consum ption, respectively

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A Proposed Strategy for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan

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International Poverty Centre 27 REFEREN CES Cornia, G iovanni Andrea (2006). ‘Macroeconom ic Poliices, Incom e Inequality and Poverty: Uzbekistan 1991-2005’ in G iovanni Andrea Cornia, Pro-Poor M acroeconomics: Potential and Limitations, Palgrave Macm illan for UNRISD. Cornia, G iovanni Andrea (Editor) (2003). Grow th and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan in the Next D ecade. Report to the G overnm ent of Uzbekistan com m issioned by the Poverty G roup of the Bureau for Developm ent Policy, Septem

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currently does, on external dem and for prim ary com m odities. It also recom m ends m easures to increase the em ploym ent intensity of grow th and reduce inequality so that the country’s pattern of grow th could becom e broad-based and inclusive. In order to achieve these goals, the study calls for m ore expansionary fiscal policies, focused on increasing public investm ent; m oderately m ore accom m odating m onetary policies, designed to m aintain positive but low real rates of return to stim ulate

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potential for achieving faster trend rates of grow th. Also, if m ore broadly based, such grow th could bring dram atic gains in em ploym ent and poverty reduction. FIGURE 1 Com parative Econom ic Perform ance of U zbekistan, GDP Grow th, 1991 – 2006 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Central Europe 4.5 Baltics 8.0 Others 9.0 Uzbekistan 5.1 Note: numbers in legend are growth rates 2000-06 Related to the need to achieve sustainable

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irrigation, energy and com m unication. Financing for such infrastructure should be a m ajor com ponent of the country’s Public Investm ent Program m e. Providing dekhan farm ers w ith greater access to land and other productive resources w ould have a m ore equitable im pact on the distribution of rural incom es. But such m easures w ould not necessarily lead to a significant trade-off w ith econom ic grow th. Table 8 show s that w hen ratios of crop value to land are com pared, dekhan farm s are 3-4 tim es m

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International Poverty Centre 27 REFEREN CES Cornia, G iovanni Andrea (2006). ‘Macroeconom ic Poliices, Incom e Inequality and Poverty: Uzbekistan 1991-2005’ in G iovanni Andrea Cornia, Pro-Poor M acroeconomics: Potential and Limitations, Palgrave Macm illan for UNRISD. Cornia, G iovanni Andrea (Editor) (2003). Grow th and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan in the Next D ecade. Report to the G overnm ent of Uzbekistan com m issioned by the Poverty G roup of the Bureau for Developm ent Policy, Septem

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Addressing Global Imbalances: A Development-Oriented Policy Agenda

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GNP) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Japan Western Europe U.S. The Rest of the World (RoW) would clearly be affected by the U.S. slowdown during the next ten-year period. Its rate of growth would plum m et from 5.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent, held up m ainly by the perform ance of developing countries. Figure 20 shows the projected sharp drop in RoW incom e growth com pared to its trend of recent years. This outcom e would be accom panied by rising unem ploym ent and underem

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GNP) -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 Japan Western Europe U.S. The Rest of the World (RoW) would clearly be affected by the U.S. slowdown during the next ten-year period. Its rate of growth would plum m et from 5.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent, held up m ainly by the perform ance of developing countries. Figure 20 shows the projected sharp drop in RoW incom e growth com pared to its trend of recent years. This outcom e would be accom panied by rising unem ploym ent and underem

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