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 Managing the Exchange Rate Consequences of an MDG-Related Scale-up in HIV/AIDS Financing
International Poverty Centre 41 Serieux, J. (2001). “The Enhanced HIPC Initiative and Poor Countries: Prospects for a Perm anent Exit” Canadian Journal of D evelopm ent Studies, 11(2), 527- 548. Tae, Wan-Son (1972). D evelopm ent of Korean Econom y: Past, Present and Future, Seoul: Sam...
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International Poverty Centre 41 Serieux, J. (2001). “The Enhanced HIPC Initiative and Poor Countries: Prospects for a Perm anent Exit” Canadian Journal of D evelopm ent Studies, 11(2), 527- 548. Tae, Wan-Son (1972). D evelopm ent of Korean Econom y: Past, Present and Future, Seoul: Sam hwa Publishing Com pany. Tornell, A. and P. R. Lane (1999). “The Voracity Effect,” Am erican Econom ic Review , 89(1), 22-46. U nited Nations. (2001). Declaration of Com m itm ent on HIV/AIDS. U nited Nations, June
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International Poverty Centre 7 There is, as yet, little evidence, at the m acro level, that HIV/AIDS is <span class="highlight">com</span> prom ising broad education achievem ents in high and m edium -prevalence countries (Table 2), but there are m any reasons to believe that the disease hinders progress at the m icro level and will thus m ake further progress difficult over the long-term . Fam ilies coping with the disease are m ore likely to rem ove children from school because of their inability to m eet education costs
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relatively short periods of tim e <span class="highlight">com</span> e with several dangers. AID DEPENDENCY Large aid flows that persist over extended periods can induce responses that are inim ical to econom ic growth and welfare over the long run. One of those potential negative responses is a reduced dom estic savings rate as dom estic econom ic agents choose to consum e the m ost part of current incom e, with the expectation that foreign savings, in the form of developm ent assistance, will provide the necessary additional resources
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12 Conference Paper paym ents denom inated in foreign currency without <span class="highlight">com</span> prom ising foreign currency availability for needed im ports). Yet, the econom ic and institutional structures of m any low incom e countries, and all least-developed countries, m ake this challenge particularly daunting. Prim ary <span class="highlight">com</span> m odity exporters with high export concentrations (a typical profile for m oderate and high HIV/AIDS prevalence countries) face highly volatile export incom e stream s that constrain their
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International Poverty Centre 17 In the view of the IMF (2005 a, c), the first effect is likely to <span class="highlight">com</span> prom ise current investm ent and growth and the second and third effects m ay <span class="highlight">com</span> prom ise long-term growth as well as overall m acroeconom ic stability. For these reasons, PRGF program conditionalities encourage countries to m aintain sm all fiscal deficits or surpluses. U nfortunately, when developm ent assistance <span class="highlight">com</span> es in the form of budget support (particularly grant support), large
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International Poverty Centre 41 Serieux, J. (2001). “The Enhanced HIPC Initiative and Poor Countries: Prospects for a Perm anent Exit” Canadian Journal of D evelopm ent Studies, 11(2), 527- 548. Tae, Wan-Son (1972). D evelopm ent of Korean Econom y: Past, Present and Future, Seoul: Sam hwa Publishing <span class="highlight">Com</span> pany. Tornell, A. and P. R. Lane (1999). “The Voracity Effect,” Am erican Econom ic Review , 89(1), 22-46. U nited Nations. (2001). Declaration of <span class="highlight">Com</span> m itm ent on HIV/AIDS. U nited Nations, June
Poverty, Growth and Income Distribution in Lebanon
6 Country Study nº 13 H ow ever, w hen considering overall poverty, the P1 index rises to 8.1 per cent, im plying that m any of the poor are clustered far below the upper poverty line. Consum ption is also relatively unequal am ong the entire poor population since the P2 index is 3.3 percent....
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6 Country Study nº 13 H ow ever, w hen considering overall poverty, the P1 index rises to 8.1 per cent, im plying that m any of the poor are clustered far below the upper poverty line. Consum ption is also relatively unequal am ong the entire poor population since the P2 index is 3.3 percent. This level is relatively high in com parison to that in other A rab countries. FIGURE 2 Distribution of Population betw een Poor and Non-Poor Categories, 2004-5 Source: Authors’ estim ates based on CAS
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6 Country Study nº 13 H ow ever, w hen considering overall poverty, the P1 index rises to 8.1 per cent, im plying that m any of the poor are clustered far below the upper poverty line. Consum ption is also relatively unequal am ong the entire poor population since the P2 index is 3.3 percent. This level is relatively high in <span class="highlight">com</span> parison to that in other A rab countries. FIGURE 2 Distribution of Population betw een Poor and Non-Poor Categories, 2004-5 Source: Authors’ estim ates based on CAS
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e of the rich and can bypass—and perhaps even tax—som e of the poor who live in the better-off areas (Datt and Ravallion 1993; Ravallion 1995). Narrow geographical targeting at the level of the village or the urban <span class="highlight">com</span> m unity could reduce the leakage of benefits to the non-poor in regions where, because of <span class="highlight">com</span> m on agro- clim atic or socioeconom ic conditions, the standard of living in the m ajority of the households in m ost villages and urban <span class="highlight">com</span> m unities is sim ilar. The households in these
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NOTES 1. Taking into account household size, age and gender <span class="highlight">com</span> position, consum ption estim ates here include food and non- food consum ption, im puted rents, im puted value of hom e-grown food and in-kind transfers received by households. However, due to data lim itations, the flow of services from consum er durables is not taken into account, with the one exception of services provided by m eans of transportation (such as cars and trucks). Actual consum ption does not include gifts to other
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A Proposed Strategy for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan
International Poverty Centre 3 investm ent ratios and capital-output ratios, the section recom m ends sustaining a six per cent long-term rate of econom ic grow th. Calculating such a rate does not assum e that the current favourable external dem and for Uzbekistan’s prim ary com m od...
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International Poverty Centre 3 investm ent ratios and capital-output ratios, the section recom m ends sustaining a six per cent long-term rate of econom ic grow th. Calculating such a rate does not assum e that the current favourable external dem and for Uzbekistan’s prim ary com m odities w ill continue indefinitely. The second part of the fourth section covers Industrial Policies, w hich are integrated w ith an expansionary m acroeconom ic fram ew ork and include various m easures: a ‘crow ding
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currently does, on external dem and for prim ary <span class="highlight">com</span> m odities. It also recom m ends m easures to increase the em ploym ent intensity of grow th and reduce inequality so that the country’s pattern of grow th could becom e broad-based and inclusive. In order to achieve these goals, the study calls for m ore expansionary fiscal policies, focused on increasing public investm ent; m oderately m ore accom m odating m onetary policies, designed to m aintain positive but low real rates of return to stim ulate
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International Poverty Centre 3 investm ent ratios and capital-output ratios, the section recom m ends sustaining a six per cent long-term rate of econom ic grow th. Calculating such a rate does not assum e that the current favourable external dem and for Uzbekistan’s prim ary <span class="highlight">com</span> m odities w ill continue indefinitely. The second part of the fourth section covers Industrial Policies, w hich are integrated w ith an expansionary m acroeconom ic fram ew ork and include various m easures: a ‘crow ding
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potential for achieving faster trend rates of grow th. Also, if m ore broadly based, such grow th could bring dram atic gains in em ploym ent and poverty reduction. FIGURE 1 <span class="highlight">Com</span> parative Econom ic Perform ance of U zbekistan, GDP Grow th, 1991 – 2006 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Central Europe 4.5 Baltics 8.0 Others 9.0 Uzbekistan 5.1 Note: numbers in legend are growth rates 2000-06 Related to the need to achieve sustainable
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16 Country Study nº 12 The six areas outlined above present a m enu of options for the governm ent of Uzbekistan. It is not advisable to im plem ent all of them at once. This w ould m ake industrial policy unduly <span class="highlight">com</span> plex. The ones considered m ost critical to achieving success in Uzbekistan’s concrete circum stances should be given priority. 4.2.1 An Investm ent Bank The basic m echanism for the m obilization of saving in Uzbekistan w ould be an investm ent bank. The funding m echanism s for
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increase in em ploym ent intensity w ould also have a pronounced im pact on reducing inequality, w hich has been on the rise in Uzbekistan. Achieving such an outcom e w ill involve a redirection of the additional resources generated by grow th 1) aw ay from the m ore capital-intensive sectors of the econom y, such as fuel and energy supplies, transport and <span class="highlight">com</span> m unication, and ferrous and non-ferrous m etals, w hich have been the foundation of the country’s previous State-Led Im port-Substitution Strategy
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irrigation, energy and <span class="highlight">com</span> m unication. Financing for such infrastructure should be a m ajor <span class="highlight">com</span> ponent of the country’s Public Investm ent Program m e. Providing dekhan farm ers w ith greater access to land and other productive resources w ould have a m ore equitable im pact on the distribution of rural incom es. But such m easures w ould not necessarily lead to a significant trade-off w ith econom ic grow th. Table 8 show s that w hen ratios of crop value to land are <span class="highlight">com</span> pared, dekhan farm s are 3-4 tim es m
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and child m ortality by preventing and m itigating the m ost <span class="highlight">com</span> m on childhood disorders and diseases. According to official statistics, both infant and child m ortality rates have been in decline since the early 1990s (Table 10). The im provem ent of m aternal health should also be an integral <span class="highlight">com</span> ponent of this effort. As part of its <span class="highlight">com</span> m itm ent to the MDG s, the governm ent is seeking to reduce the child m ortality rate by tw o thirds (w hich is in line w ith the global MDG target) and reduce the
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International Poverty Centre 25 But it m aintains that the pattern of this grow th should be broad-based, resulting from a greater em ploym ent intensity of grow th and reductions in inequality. Uzbekistan has recently achieved relatively high rates of grow th, but these have been reliant on rising external dem and for prim ary <span class="highlight">com</span> m odities and have had not had a broad-based im pact on hum an w elfare. This study recom m ends that if Uzbekistan is going to sustain a long-term six per cent rate
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International Poverty Centre 27 REFEREN CES Cornia, G iovanni Andrea (2006). ‘Macroeconom ic Poliices, Incom e Inequality and Poverty: Uzbekistan 1991-2005’ in G iovanni Andrea Cornia, Pro-Poor M acroeconomics: Potential and Limitations, Palgrave Macm illan for UNRISD. Cornia, G iovanni Andrea (Editor) (2003). Grow th and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan in the Next D ecade. Report to the G overnm ent of Uzbekistan <span class="highlight">com</span> m issioned by the Poverty G roup of the Bureau for Developm ent Policy, Septem
The Reduction of Fiscal Space in Zambia�Dutch Disease and Tight-Money Conditionalit...
International Poverty Centre 11 pd = m - yd W here Pd is the price index of non-tradables (pd its rate of change), Yd real output (yd its rate of change), v is the velocity of m oney (assum ed constant), and M is the m oney base (m its rate of change). If the Law of One Price holds, the dom...
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International Poverty Centre 11 pd = m - yd W here Pd is the price index of non-tradables (pd its rate of change), Yd real output (yd its rate of change), v is the velocity of m oney (assum ed constant), and M is the m oney base (m its rate of change). If the Law of One Price holds, the dom estic price of traded com m odities w ill be determ ined by the exchange rate. Therefore, p = α(m - yd) + (1 - a)βe W here e is the rate of change of the exchange rate and β, the ‘pass-through
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polices. The fiscal effect had tw o m ajor revenue <span class="highlight">com</span> ponents: a fall in the dom estic-currency incom e equivalent of official developm ent assistance and a fall in trade taxes. In 2005, the negative effect on the public budget of the Kw acha appreciation w as largely balanced by the positive im pact on reducing external debt service. This positive im pact ended, how ever, w ith debt relief and w as alm ost zero after 2005. Obviously, these revenue effects, though little noticed, had negative im plications
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the second quarter of 2006. A subsequent depreciation brought the Kw acha back to the vicinity of 4,000 during the third quarter of 2006 through the third quarter of 2007. Nonetheless, the average for the first three quarters of 2007 w as 14 per cent below that for the first three quarters of 2005. This 14 per cent represented nom inal appreciation, w ith real appreciation being m uch larger (see W eeks, et al., 2007, Chapter 7). The national debate focused on the production of tradables, export <span class="highlight">com</span>
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International Poverty Centre 11 pd = m - yd W here Pd is the price index of non-tradables (pd its rate of change), Yd real output (yd its rate of change), v is the velocity of m oney (assum ed constant), and M is the m oney base (m its rate of change). If the Law of One Price holds, the dom estic price of traded <span class="highlight">com</span> m odities w ill be determ ined by the exchange rate. Therefore, p = α(m - yd) + (1 - a)βe W here e is the rate of change of the exchange rate and β, the ‘pass-through
Fiscal Policy
International Poverty Centre 11 elim inated w hen the m oney supply returns to its initial level, and it w ill have a different com position, w ith a higher share of dom estic credit and a low er share of international reserves. Inflation and balance of paym ents deficits can persist only i...
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International Poverty Centre 11 elim inated w hen the m oney supply returns to its initial level, and it w ill have a different com position, w ith a higher share of dom estic credit and a low er share of international reserves. Inflation and balance of paym ents deficits can persist only if dom estic credit increases continuously. U nder such circum stances, the econom y w ill suffer persistent inflation and a continuing balance of paym ents deficit, potentially leading to the exhaustion of the
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International Poverty Centre 11 elim inated w hen the m oney supply returns to its initial level, and it w ill have a different <span class="highlight">com</span> position, w ith a higher share of dom estic credit and a low er share of international reserves. Inflation and balance of paym ents deficits can persist only if dom estic credit increases continuously. U nder such circum stances, the econom y w ill suffer persistent inflation and a continuing balance of paym ents deficit, potentially leading to the exhaustion of the
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24 Training Module No. 1 – Fiscal Policy BO X 1.3 A ctive Fiscal Policy in Vietnam During the period 1990-2005, Vietnam had one of the fastest grow th rates of any country in the w orld. U nlike m ost of the countries in the Southeast Asia region, it suffered little from the Asian Financial Crisis. Central to this success w as an active fiscal policy that em phasised public investm ent. Because of problem s of non-<span class="highlight">com</span> parability of data, the analysis in the table below begins in 1995. Follow
Developing a Global Model for Trade, Finance and Income Distribution
financial objective (presum ably the sum of targets for NA*) and the incom e assum ption Y* can be interpreted. O n the one hand, aggregates at country level m ay be regarded as the sum of com ponents determ ined separately by the m ain actors - households, firm s, governm ent and central b...
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financial objective (presum ably the sum of targets for NA*) and the incom e assum ption Y* can be interpreted. O n the one hand, aggregates at country level m ay be regarded as the sum of com ponents determ ined separately by the m ain actors - households, firm s, governm ent and central bank. Even if there is som e convergence of assum ptions about national incom e Y*, the financial objectives of agents in each sector m ay go in different directions; the com bined outcom e NA* is nothing m ore or less
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4 International Poverty Centre Technical Paper nº 01 The value of tangible assets K at the end of each period is given by the position at the end of the prior period K-1 plus net investm ent I (purchases less sales and consum ption of fixed capital) and holding gains GK:8 [5] ( ) tttt IKK ++≡ −11 λ w here [6] 1−≡ ttt KGK λ and λt is the rate of price change of the portfolio of tangible assets in each period. Finally, w ealth <span class="highlight">com</span> prises tangible assets as w ell as the financial position: [7
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financial objective (presum ably the sum of targets for NA*) and the incom e assum ption Y* can be interpreted. O n the one hand, aggregates at country level m ay be regarded as the sum of <span class="highlight">com</span> ponents determ ined separately by the m ain actors - households, firm s, governm ent and central bank. Even if there is som e convergence of assum ptions about national incom e Y*, the financial objectives of agents in each sector m ay go in different directions; the <span class="highlight">com</span> bined outcom e NA* is nothing m ore or less
Sculptures of Ancient Egypt
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Da Boy from Rome
Greek and Roman Mythology Reference Desk Atlas Almanacs Dictionary Encyclopedia FunBrain Classics > Poetry > The Little Book of Modern Verse Da Boy from Rome Thomas Augustine Daly To-day ees com' from Eetaly A boy ees leeve een Rome, An' he ees stop an' speak weeth me — I w...
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