iSEEK - Education

Nanak Kakwani and Kalanidhi Subbarao 5 children, the disabled, chronically food insecure households, etc. , the prospects for the elderly deserve a little more attention than was possible in the Risk and Vulnerability Assessments largely because of the changing demographics, HIV-AIDS pandemic, the pace of urbanization and the gradual emergence of nuclear families – all contributing to a gradual erosion of the traditional safety net, viz., the extended family. Given that most poor happen to be in

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Nanak Kakwani and Kalanidhi Subbarao 3 While categorical targeting of a pension for the above groups yields the maximum poverty reduction impacts, and is also fiscally sustainable even in low income countries, its operational feasibility is considered to be weak. Moreover, targeting a social pension for such specific groups among the elderly is most likely to lead to adverse incentive effects and possible induced changes in household types in order to claim a pension. Bearing this mind, two

7 0 http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper8.pdf#page=7 www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper8.pdf#page=7

Nanak Kakwani and Kalanidhi Subbarao 5 children, the disabled, chronically food insecure households, etc. , the prospects for the elderly deserve a little more attention than was possible in the Risk and Vulnerability Assessments largely because of the changing demographics, HIV-AIDS pandemic, the pace of urbanization and the gradual emergence of nuclear families – all contributing to a gradual erosion of the traditional safety net, viz., the extended family. Given that most poor happen to be in

15 0 http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper8.pdf#page=15 www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper8.pdf#page=15

Nanak Kakwani and Kalanidhi Subbarao 13 poverty among the children is more than 5 percentage points than that of elderly in Madagascar, Mozambique and Nigeria. The pattern remains the same even when disaggregated by rural/urban location (tables not presented). The above findings strongly confirm the elderly disadvantage especially when the elderly have become either principal breadwinners for the family, or have become caregivers for children. For most countries the differences between the

25 0 http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper8.pdf#page=25 www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper8.pdf#page=25

Nanak Kakwani and Kalanidhi Subbarao 23 Another way to assess the superiority (or lack thereof) of targeting the poor elderly versus all elderly, and various household structures in which the elderly are living, is to compute the targeting indicator (see Appendix for methodology). This is done in Tables 12. If the computed targeting indicator is greater than 1, then the same amount of budget targeted to that group as social pension will result in a greater reduction in national poverty than

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Nanak Kakwani and Kalanidhi Subbarao 25 contributory social pensions for the elderly from a (national) poverty reduction stand point, caution is needed in selecting the right targeted approach while operationalizing a social pension policy.13 TABLE14 Percentage change in national headcount by targeting assistance equal to 70 % and 35% of average poverty line to poor elderly Poor Elderly 60 + Poor elderly 65 + Country Pension = .70% of Poverty threshold Pension = .35% of Poverty

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Nanak Kakwani and Kalanidhi Subbarao 27 households, the probability of male children attending the school increases. As can be expected, in urban areas the elasticity is generally positive and high in all countries, implying that male children in urban settings are most likely to attend schools. It also implies that the potential adverse impacts on schooling is nil for male children living with the elderly. TABLE 15 Elasticity of probability of male children attending school Country Welfare

www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCWorkingPaper8.pdf#page=7

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