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 A Proposed Strategy for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan
International Poverty Centre 3 investm ent ratios and capital-output ratios, the section recom m ends sustaining a six per cent long-term rate of econom ic grow th. Calculating such a rate does not assum e that the current favourable external dem and for Uzbekistan’s prim ary com m od...
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International Poverty Centre 3 investm ent ratios and capital-output ratios, the section recom m ends sustaining a six per cent long-term rate of econom ic grow th. Calculating such a rate does not assum e that the current favourable external dem and for Uzbekistan’s prim ary com m odities w ill continue indefinitely. The second part of the fourth section covers Industrial Policies, w hich are integrated w ith an expansionary m acroeconom ic fram ew ork and include various m easures: a ‘crow ding
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=3
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=3
currently does, on external dem and for prim ary <span class="highlight">com</span> m odities. It also recom m ends m easures to increase the em ploym ent intensity of grow th and reduce inequality so that the country’s pattern of grow th could becom e broad-based and inclusive. In order to achieve these goals, the study calls for m ore expansionary fiscal policies, focused on increasing public investm ent; m oderately m ore accom m odating m onetary policies, designed to m aintain positive but low real rates of return to stim ulate
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=5
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=5
International Poverty Centre 3 investm ent ratios and capital-output ratios, the section recom m ends sustaining a six per cent long-term rate of econom ic grow th. Calculating such a rate does not assum e that the current favourable external dem and for Uzbekistan’s prim ary <span class="highlight">com</span> m odities w ill continue indefinitely. The second part of the fourth section covers Industrial Policies, w hich are integrated w ith an expansionary m acroeconom ic fram ew ork and include various m easures: a ‘crow ding
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=7
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=7
potential for achieving faster trend rates of grow th. Also, if m ore broadly based, such grow th could bring dram atic gains in em ploym ent and poverty reduction. FIGURE 1 <span class="highlight">Com</span> parative Econom ic Perform ance of U zbekistan, GDP Grow th, 1991 – 2006 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Central Europe 4.5 Baltics 8.0 Others 9.0 Uzbekistan 5.1 Note: numbers in legend are growth rates 2000-06 Related to the need to achieve sustainable
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=18
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=18
16 Country Study nº 12 The six areas outlined above present a m enu of options for the governm ent of Uzbekistan. It is not advisable to im plem ent all of them at once. This w ould m ake industrial policy unduly <span class="highlight">com</span> plex. The ones considered m ost critical to achieving success in Uzbekistan’s concrete circum stances should be given priority. 4.2.1 An Investm ent Bank The basic m echanism for the m obilization of saving in Uzbekistan w ould be an investm ent bank. The funding m echanism s for
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=20
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=20
increase in em ploym ent intensity w ould also have a pronounced im pact on reducing inequality, w hich has been on the rise in Uzbekistan. Achieving such an outcom e w ill involve a redirection of the additional resources generated by grow th 1) aw ay from the m ore capital-intensive sectors of the econom y, such as fuel and energy supplies, transport and <span class="highlight">com</span> m unication, and ferrous and non-ferrous m etals, w hich have been the foundation of the country’s previous State-Led Im port-Substitution Strategy
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=23
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=23
irrigation, energy and <span class="highlight">com</span> m unication. Financing for such infrastructure should be a m ajor <span class="highlight">com</span> ponent of the country’s Public Investm ent Program m e. Providing dekhan farm ers w ith greater access to land and other productive resources w ould have a m ore equitable im pact on the distribution of rural incom es. But such m easures w ould not necessarily lead to a significant trade-off w ith econom ic grow th. Table 8 show s that w hen ratios of crop value to land are <span class="highlight">com</span> pared, dekhan farm s are 3-4 tim es m
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=25
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=25
and child m ortality by preventing and m itigating the m ost <span class="highlight">com</span> m on childhood disorders and diseases. According to official statistics, both infant and child m ortality rates have been in decline since the early 1990s (Table 10). The im provem ent of m aternal health should also be an integral <span class="highlight">com</span> ponent of this effort. As part of its <span class="highlight">com</span> m itm ent to the MDG s, the governm ent is seeking to reduce the child m ortality rate by tw o thirds (w hich is in line w ith the global MDG target) and reduce the
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=27
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=27
International Poverty Centre 25 But it m aintains that the pattern of this grow th should be broad-based, resulting from a greater em ploym ent intensity of grow th and reductions in inequality. Uzbekistan has recently achieved relatively high rates of grow th, but these have been reliant on rising external dem and for prim ary <span class="highlight">com</span> m odities and have had not had a broad-based im pact on hum an w elfare. This study recom m ends that if Uzbekistan is going to sustain a long-term six per cent rate
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http://www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=29
www.undp-povertycentre.org/pub/IPCCountryStudy12.pdf#page=29
International Poverty Centre 27 REFEREN CES Cornia, G iovanni Andrea (2006). ‘Macroeconom ic Poliices, Incom e Inequality and Poverty: Uzbekistan 1991-2005’ in G iovanni Andrea Cornia, Pro-Poor M acroeconomics: Potential and Limitations, Palgrave Macm illan for UNRISD. Cornia, G iovanni Andrea (Editor) (2003). Grow th and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan in the Next D ecade. Report to the G overnm ent of Uzbekistan <span class="highlight">com</span> m issioned by the Poverty G roup of the Bureau for Developm ent Policy, Septem
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